Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
